This article is the English version of Anton Hemerijck and Waltraud Schelke, « Gouvernabilité, inégalités et État-providence », published in Politique étrangère (Vol. 91, No. 2, 2026) which celebrates the journal’s 90th anniversary.

The hard-right repositioning of the current United States (U.S.) administration under Donald Trump, including recent military threats against North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, has demonstrated beyond reasonable doubt that the rule-based liberal international order is in deep crisis. The response in Europe revolves around two competing views. On the one hand, there is the opinion that higher defense spending comes at the expense of generous welfare provision that most Europeans hold dear, from public education, healthcare, unemployment insurance, and pensions. On the other hand, there are those who staunchly continue to privilege welfare outlays over military spending. On this side, there is the argument that military might easily triggers armed conflict. A few, such as the Italian minister of interior Matteo Salvini, opportunistically side with the pacifists by professing a hitherto unsuspected support for the welfare state and “peace”, even though they make no secret of their admiration for President Vladimir Putin.

Whilst drawing opposite conclusions, neither side of the argument seems to question the existence of a welfare versus warfare trade-off: both take for granted that choosing one over the other is inescapable in the new context of geopolitical strife. This surely begs the question of how domestic welfare provision and the global order are interlinked. Our argument is that economic insecurity and social inequalities make governance of national territories and of the international order indeed more difficult. However, there is no simple relationship between inequality, welfare provision, and governability–if governing means to uphold a social and political order without having to suppress civil unrest. Some of the most unequal countries in the world, for instance the Middle Eastern Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, are firmly governed by illiberalism. Others, such as the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon) countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the past have broken down even though socio-economic inequalities were comparatively low and welfare provision quite universal.

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Find the table of contents for the anniversary issue (No. 2/2026) of Politique étrangère here.

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