In an extraordinary about-turn, the invasion of Ukraine has forced Germany to abandon its “culture of restraint” and to increase its defense spending dramatically. Berlin has even abandoned its principles of not exporting arms to countries at war and has announced that it is sending thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Kyiv, to be followed by tanks and rocket launchers.
The Balkan region is historically and geographically an intersection of different migration routes and civilizations. Its attractiveness to a number of foreign states seeking to pursue their interests makes the region susceptible to influence both from the East and the West. At present, all Balkan countries are either EU members or seeking to join the EU, while some are also NATO members; they seem to be firmly anchored ideologically in the camp of pro-Western, liberal democracies. That does not prevent them from maintaining active economic, political and cultural relations with states such as Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf States. These non-Western actors are often considered to be an option to fill in certain “gaps” or to complement cooperation with Western partners when it comes to attracting foreign capital, increasing exports, securing infrastructure funding, etc. At the same time, this cooperation is seen as undermining certain core values required in the process of EU integration, such as democracy, rule of law, human rights and good governance.
The war in Ukraine has resulted in the Russian government ramping up its instrumentalization and manipulation of history, with the Great Patriotic War in particular being used intensively as a main source of legitimization. In the West, Russian aggression has prompted a revival of already overused historical analogies. Those who call for talks with Moscow and a rapid settlement are fearful of an escalation with tragic consequences, as in 1914, when leaders “sleepwalked” their way into the First World War. And those who are alarmed by a return to a world of authoritarian expansionist powers insist on the need to counter an aggressor described as genocidal; comparing Russia’s intentions to those of Hitler, they seek to avoid a repetition Munich-style appeasement of the 1930s and to bring about the fall of the regime. Analogies can also be made with the course and consequences of the Korean War (1950–1953), which, like the current war, had a Eurasian dimension: The Korean War raised fears that the USSR would take advantage of the war to attack Europe, while the war in Ukraine immediately raised fears of a Chinese offensive, in particular against Taiwan.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought large-scale interstate warfare back to Europe, plunging the Old World into a series of mutually exacerbating crises. The war has a global impact because Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas (mostly through pipelines) and liquid hydrocarbons (crude oil and refined products), as well as one of the world’s largest exporters of coal, uranium, metals and ores, and of agricultural raw materials and fertilizers. Russia was also on the verge of becoming the world’s fourth largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), just behind the US, Qatar, and Australia. The conflict’s impact can be seen in the slowdown in global economic growth, an increase in regional instability and specific flash points, inflation raging in most economies, and unprecedented tensions in agricultural and hydrocarbon markets.
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